SA’s lockdown roadmap for 2022: Is this our route out of restrictions?

The economic experts at Price Waterhouse Cooper have published an updated lockdown roadmap for South Africa – and it almost certainly appears that the worst is behind us, in regards to the pandemic.

New lockdown roadmap for 2022: The end is in sight

PWC have frequently posted these lockdown roadmaps, which give a monthly assessment of how restrictions will be eased and tightened in Mzansi. They do this by producing three outcomes: The upside, the baseline, and the downside.

“South Africa entered 2022 en route to a new post-lockdown era. In this paradigm, COVID has moved from being a pandemic to being endemic. As such, it’s highly unlikely the economy will again see significant lockdown restrictions.”

“Nonetheless, a level 1 lockdown is likely to continue in the short-term until legislation is in place to cope with the challenges of COVID-19 outside a state of emergency. This 22-month old state of emergency provides the government with powers to quickly respond to any adverse developments around COVID-19.”

PWC statement

How long will restrictions remain in SA?

Essentially, PWC give us a ‘best and worst case scenario’, while also exhibiting what the middle-ground forecasts look like – and we’re pleased to report the predictions are all heading in one direction.

The analysts behind the data now firmly believe that SA is entering its ‘post-lockdown era’. For all three outcomes, no values for April 2022 are provided – as they assert that the need for restrictions will be gone by then.

In a best case scenario, the lockdown legislation could be dropped a month earlier in March. That’s the only difference between any of the three columns, in any of the months. The need for a State of Disaster framework will, therefore, become obsolete, and the government will have to make alternative plan to live with the virus.

The PWC lockdown roadmap for South Africa:

All three scenarios have restrictions in place until March, where the best case scenario predicts a permanent end to the State of Disaster. Other outcomes only see this happening from April 2022 – Photo: Price Waterhouse Cooper
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