No confidence motion: What needs to happen for Ramaphosa to lose his job?
There’s something of a showdown awaiting Cyril Ramaphosa in Parliament today – but the president can afford to be quietly confident about his chances of survival. The African Transformation Movement (ATM) is hoping to withdraw the ANC leader from his role through a ‘no confidence motion’. However, they face an uphill task to get what they want.
Why the ATM want the president gone
Angered by rampant corruption, ongoing issues with service delivery, and a supposed failure to tackle the jobs crisis, the ATM had been pushing for a no confidence vote against the president since February. They reignited their virus-interrupted challenge in October, and last month, they got the green light to table their motion.
But how, exactly, can today result in Cyril Ramaphosa packing his bags and leaving office? Here’s the lowdown…
Motion of no confidence: What needs to happen for Cyril Ramaphosa to be voted out?
Well, first and foremost, the motion actually needs to go ahead – and even that’s in serious doubt on Thursday. The ATM are pinning their hopes of success on a secret ballot, after pursuing legal action that would compel House Speaker Thandi Modise to overturn her decision to keep the choices of each MP anonymous.
After petitioning the Western Cape High Court, the ATM could request a postponement of their own proposals if a secret ballot hasn’t been instituted by Thursday afternoon. Already, the odds are stacked against the minority party.
Secondly, it looks as if the no confidence motion can only get over the line if there’s a massive ANC rebellion. The DA has already stated they will abstain from any vote, branding the process as ‘frivolous’. That means 84 opposition MPs can no longer be relied upon to back the bid which would force Cyril Ramaphosa out of his job.
How many votes are needed to remove Ramaphosa?
The ATM will need to gain two-thirds of the vote – or 268 votes out of a possible 400 – to secure victory. If the DA follow the whip’s instruction, the voting pool narrows to just 316. Every other opposition MP – and about 182 ANC MPs – would have to express their opposition to the president, and these numbers are as close to impossible as you can get.
The idea that less than 50 ANC MPs will support Ramaphosa today – factional battles or otherwise – is laughable. But this is 2020, remember? Absolutely anything is possible, even if it is extremely unlikely.
