Musah Dankwa Fires Back At NPP Over Polls Credibility

Musah Dankwa, owner of Global InfoAnalytics, a polling group has hit back at critics from the New Patriotic Party (NPP) over the credibility of his polls.

This follows his inconsistent figures given ahead of the US elections contrary to the current outcome.

In a statement, Dankwa expressed frustration with NPP sympathizers and officials circulating a Graphic online report from October, suggesting it would take a miracle for Donald Trump to win the US presidential election.

“I am not surprised NPP sympathizers and officials are happily and widely circulating a Graphic online report attributing to me in October suggesting that it will take a miracle for Trump to win,” Dankwa said.

Musah Dankwa emphasized that he is responsible for his posts but not how media houses report on them. He referenced a previous incident where media outlets misrepresented his predictions for the NPP presidential primaries.

“We came out to correct that. What we posted regarding our prediction was never a runoff, and we all know who was right,” he stated.

Dankwa accused his detractors of attempting to discredit his polls for propaganda reasons, citing similarities between the US election and Ghana’s upcoming election.

“The reasons for Kamala’s loss have a lot in common with what is happening in Ghana a month before the December 7th election… The economy and cost of living crisis were the biggest concerns of voters in America,” Dankwa noted.

He pointed out that Trump’s campaign focused on the economy and immigration, resonating with American voters, while Harris emphasized abortion rights and housing.

“Any objective assessment of the above will conclude that the winner of Ghana’s election will be the candidate voters believe is offering a solution to their top three issues of concern: ECONOMY, JOBS AND EDUCATION,” Dankwa said.

Confident in his polls, Dankwa highlighted the significant lead of the frontrunner in Ghana’s election, with margins of error between +-1.5% to 2.4%.

“Ghana’s election is not close as others are making you believe… IF DMB continues to bleed among floating voters, his chances to get even a runoff will be a tall order,” he stated.

Dankwa concluded by advising critics to focus on exit poll data and its implications for Ghana’s election rather than celebrating Trump’s victory.

“Please I advise you to screenshot this post. We will return to it after the December 7 elections.”

Below is his full statement on his Facebook page:

I am not surprised NPP sympathizers and officials are happily and widely circulating a Graphic online report attributed to me in October suggesting that it will take a miracle for Trump to win. While I am fully responsible for every post I post on this wall and our handles, I am not responsible for how any media houses decide to report on what may be attributed to me to attract readers to their sites.

In October 2023, after we released our polls on the NPP presidential primaries, some media houses claimed we predicted a runoff because they did not understand the use of the All Voters Model (AVL) and Likely Voters Model (LV). We came out to correct that. What we posted regarding our prediction was never a runoff and we all know who was right. Since then, our detractors have invested time, energy, and resources to ensure that Ghanaians do not trust our polls for propaganda reasons, but we are not concerned. I know they aim to suggest that we are credible because Kamala lost and our polls will not see the light of day.

But why would they be so excited about Kamala’s loss when the reasons for her loss have a lot in common with what is happening in Ghana a month before the December 7th election?

First, from the exit poll, we know that the American voters’ concern was that America was headed in the wrong direction under the Biden/Harris administration and that Harris could not distance herself from the performance of her boss.

The poll also shows that the biggest concern of voters in America was the economy and cost of living crisis. The economy albatross was firmly tied around Harris’ neck and not Trump’s. This is very similar to what Ghanaians are saying to all researchers, including NCEE, Afrobarometer, and indeed, Global InfoAnalytics polls. So, if these were the reasons why they voted against Kamala, why should you be happy going into the December elections when Ghanaians are saying their economic condition today will be the most important factor in how they vote?

Finally, on the campaign pivoting, while Trump pivoted on economy and immigration, thus focusing on what mattered to American voters, Harris believed that people cared more about abortion rights and housing and that she could ride on the fear of curtailment of abortion rights to drive women out to vote for her. Does this approach sound familiar here in Ghana?

Any objective assessment of the above will conclude that the winner of Ghana’s election will be the candidate voters believe is offering a solution to their top three issues of concern, ECONOMY, JOBS AND EDUCATION.

While I am not bothered that you have found a quote that suggests I am not credible because that is what you have invested in for all this while, I am very confident that our polls will be very close to what will happen in the December elections. Why do I say so? In the US elections, the polls tightened in the last two weeks to a dead heat, with a margin of errors for several polls ranging from +-1 to 3%. Trump or Kamala’s lead in the polls had always been inside the margin of error, meaning anyone could win the race on the day. However, our polls have had margins of error between +-1.5% to 2.4% but the leader of the race has been leading in the polls with over 11%. Ghana’s election is not as close as others are making you believe.

According to Edison Research, independent voters favored the Democratic candidate – Vice President Kamala Harris – but Republican Donald Trump nonetheless improved his performance with the key swing voter bloc. Some 50% of independents said they voted for Harris and 45% for Trump – a 4 percentage point improvement for the Republican from 2020. According to Global InfoAnalytics, using a similar basis when compared to how floating voters voted in the 2020 election, the polls show that Nana Addo won floating voters by a 57 percentage points margin (75% to 18%), but now floating voters are voting for JDM by 53 percentage points margin (67% to 14%). This is the reason why Ghana’s election will not be closed. If DMB continues to bleed among floating voters, his chances to get even a runoff will be a tall order. So far, runoff is not expected.

Instead of focusing on the exit poll data and what message it has for them so they can fix it, they are here focusing on the fact that the Elephant in America won the race. Good luck.

Please, I advise you to screenshot of this post. We will return to it after the December 7 elections.

-BY Daniel Bampoe

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