Kwara 2027 gubernatorial election and the zoning controversy

By Demola Akinyemi, Ilorin

Kwara state, popularly known as State of Harmony has its own political peculiarities that are not common to other states of the federation. In other states, rotation of political powers is sacrosanct and expedient by the stakeholders for the sake of power balancing, equity and fairness. But in Kwara state, that has not been particularly so with respect to gubernatorial elections since the creation of the state in 1967.

Rotation

There are three Senatorial districts in the state with a population of about 3.6 million people namely; Kwara North, Kwara Central and Kwara South. Out of the entire sixteen local governments in the state, Kwara Central has five local governments namely Ilorin West, Ilorin South, Ilorin East, Asa and Moro local governments. With about 42% of the population in the state, political power block in Kwara Central had been dictating the shots about who gets what particularly as it concerns gubernatorial election.

In the 1979 governorship election, Alh Adamu Attah who was born at Okeneba in Okene before the creation of Kogi state, contested and won the 1979 gubernatorial election in Kwara State on the ticket of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). He defeated Chief Josiah Sunday Olawoyin, of the then Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN).

Alhaji Sha’aba Lafiagi from Edu local government area of the northern part was also elected the governor of the state in January 1992 on the platform of Social Democratic Party (SDP) with the support of Dr Abubakar Olusola Saraki who firmly controlled the political structures of the state then. Alh Sha’aba Lafiagi however spent about two years after his administration was truncated by military intervention of General Sanni Abacha and since then, the northern part of the state had not been privileged to provide elected governor till date. Whereas, Kwara Central had produced governors in the person of Alhaji Mohammed Alabi Lawal of blessed memory between 1999 and 2003. Alhaji Alabi Lawal lost out in the power struggle to win a second term, when he disagreed with his political leader.

Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki who later became Nigeria’s Senate President took over the governorship seat from Alh Mohammed Alabi Lawal, and served between 2003 and 2011.The elder Saraki who held sway at the period ensured two term elections of his son as the governor. Apparently conscious of the power rotation, Dr Bukola Saraki succeeded in ensuring that his successor Alhaji AbdulFatah Ahmed from Share in Ifelodun local government area of Kwara South emerged as the governor and was reelected for a second term with the backing of his political leader, Dr Bukola Saraki and governed the state between 2011 and 2019.

The then ruling party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)in the state was plotting to ensure that its candidate, Hon AbdulRazaq Atunwa from Asa local government took over unknown to the party that the ‘Otoge’ movement would sweep away the legacies of Saraki’s political dynasty and so the current administration of Mallam AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq emerged.

By implication, since the creation of the state of harmony, Kwara North had produced governor for about two years before General Mohammed Abacha terminated the civilian administration of Alh Mohammed Sha’aba Lafiagi in November 1993 while Kwara South, had eight years, and Kwara Central producing governors for nineteen years by 2027 .

2027 and Zoning

Mallam AbdulRahman who rode on the back of ‘O toge” moverment, meaning Enough is Enough which terminated the over 40 years of the Sarakis’ political domination of the state also became Chairman of Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) in the life of the current administration.

What is remarkable so far in his style of governance, is mostly the appointments of far younger male and females in their late twenties and early thirties as commissioners. It was reliably gathered that the idea was to encourage youths in the art of governance and prepare them for leadership tasks ahead.

It’s also on record that Gov AbdulRazaq resuscitated some moribund state own companies it inherited among which are Lasuco Sugar Company Lafiagi, Sugar Fillm factory, former Tale and Lyle Sugar Company and Kwara Ethnix Furniture, all in Ilorin in his bid to create more employment for the people.

By 2027, the current administration would have also completed two Fly Over bridges, Tunde Idiagbon Flyover bridge, completed during his first term,and the ongoing Challenge/Unity Flyover bridge which had been scheduled to complete by first quarter of next year, among several other ongoing projects too numerous to mention here.

Political dynamics of 2027

By the year 2027, the “Otoge “ mandate would have expired and since the Sarakis political power had been whittled down the comparison of whether Otoge has bettered the lots of Kwarans or not can only be dispassionately dissected when the current administration leaves.

So far, there hasn’t been any official statement from the government house that the current administration under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is prepared to balance the largely unequal political equation by ensuring that any candidate from Kwara North takes over in 2027. But the body language of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq according to some keen watchers of Kwara politics has been lending credence to the fact that he’s interested in shifting the power base to Kwara North.

Recall that the opposition PDP, in a tactical move to wrestle political power fielded its candidate from Kwara North in 2023 general elections in the person of Alh Yama Abdullahi who lost to Gov AbdulRazaq who won his second term. It needs to be stated that the PDP, the only existing opposition political party in the state that is without any elected member in the state and national assemblies is not politically structured to single handedly win the 2027 gubernatorial election for the party.

So,what will probably decide the political power shifts is the alignment and realignment of the political forces that bind the state together. By simple political equation, any candidate from Kwara North with about 24% population, the least in the state, followed by Kwara South 34% and Kwara Central with 42%, irrespective of any political party would definitely need the support of Kwara Central and Kwara South to win the 2027 gubernatorial election.

But the President of Afonja Descendants Union (ADU) in Kwara State, and a social critic, Alhaji Abdulkarim Olola-Kazum, declared that the 2027 governorship election in the state is open to all aspirants irrespective of their geopolitical origins. Olola-Kazum in a statement asserted that the state has never reserved the governorship for any particular district through official mandates or collective bargaining. He said that the forthcoming governorship contest is open and all interested aspirants are eligible to contest on any platform they choose. According to him, “The governorship contest has historically been an open field where all interested aspirants can present their platforms.

This approach embodies the true essence of democracy, which we strive to uphold even during the challenging times under military rule. Hearing talks of rotational governorship or making space for certain groups undermines the democratic values we stand for. Such practices will be unequivocally rejected.”

But a former youth leader in the state and currently one of the chieftains of the ruling APC from Kwara North, Prince Al-Hassan Mariam in a veiled reaction countered that it’s the turn of Kwara North to produce the governor in 2027 irrespective of political affiliations.
He said; “Since inception of this democracy in 1999, the senatorial district has always been giving maximum support to the other two districts. Consequently, in order to sustain and maintain our harmonious coexistence that had been from time immemorial, Kwara north is the answer by 2027.”he said

The political debacle

As things stand, Gov.AbdulRazaq is the only person that can decide where the pendulum should swing, as Dr Bukola Saraki did when he ensured that Alhaji AbdulFatah Ahmed took over from him, same way his father, Dr Abubakar Olusola Saraki of blessed memory did when he installed Alh Sha’aba Lafiaji as the governor. But interestingly, the political tendencies that existed then are no longer in Kwara state now.

Gov AbdulRazaq surely needs a successor that would protect his interest and defend his legacy but it’s surely going to be a herculean task making someone from Kwara North to succeed him despite the government structure.

Vanguard investigation revealed that politicians in Kwara Central, irrespective of political affiliations are currently unwilling to support any candidate from Kwara North to take over from the current administration and rather prefer to retain power in Kwara Central. There are also clear indications that core supporters of the governor who are natives of Ilorin Emirate might withdraw their support if the governor’s choice is not from Kwara Central. As a result, there have been strong contenders from Kwara Central who are eyeing the Ahmadu Bello way government house, against the spirit of fair play that is seriously manifesting in the state.

For example, it was reliably gathered that Senator Salihu Mustapha representing Kwara Central in the National Assembly and former National Chairmanship Aspirant of the ruling APC is keen about contesting the 2027 gubernatorial election. Same with a card carrying member of PDP, Professor Suleiman Abubakar the present DG of National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS) Abuja. According to his Media Aide, Alhaji Bolaji Gobir in an interview with Vanguard Correspondent, Professor Abubakar Olanrewaju Sulaiman’s experience in governance and acceptability by all and sundry with his good track record is enough reasons for Kwarans to support him. He said that his antecedents in building the state from the grassroots is another example of his political capacity to be the next governor.

Similarly,a member of PDP from Kwara Central, Professor Ali Ahmad, former Speaker of the State Assembly and a lawyer is also reportedly eyeing the coveted seat in 2027.

The possible governorship aspirants from Kwara North in the ruling APC include the Speaker, Engineer Yakub Danladi who is in his 30s and the elderly Alhaji Sadiq Abubakar, a two term Senator Representing Kwara North in the National Assembly .

The Kwara state gubernatorial battle for the election of a successor to Gov AbdulRazaq would be tough as stakeholders await the strategies the governor would deploy to achieve his agenda which would unfold anytime soon, while his opponents both within and outside the ruling APC are also battle ready. Time indeed will tell

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