Elections 2024: How pivotal is KwaZulu-Natal to overall result?

All eyes will be on KwaZulu-Natal in next week’s South African general elections.

This despite the province not even being the biggest in the country in terms of registered voters with 5 738 272 out of the record 27 723 820 overall number (20.7%).

Five major parties vying for votes

The battle for supremacy in the province is expected to be fierce with no fewer than five major parties fighting for seats – realistically more than any of Mzansi’s other eight provinces.

The ANC picked up 54.22% of the votes in the most recent elections in 2019.

However, that was considerably down on its 64.52% in 2014 and 62.95% from 2009.

Throw in the fact that this year’s elections will see the Jacob Zuma-led MK party contest for the first time, as well as the always confident Economic Freedom Fighter (EFF) and a resurgent Democratic Alliance (DA) under Chris Pappas in the province.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) also cannot be discounted.

In recent polls are to be believed, the MK party can expect somewhere around 8.4% of the total vote, the vast majority of which is expected to come in KwaZulu-Natal from Zulu-speaking followers of Zuma.

While the overall number of registered voters has climbed by just over one million from 2019, the number in KwaZulu-Natal has risen by 213 606.

HOW KWAZULU-NATAL VOTED IN 2019

Registered voters5 524 666Votes cast3 654 701Total valid votes3 598 281Spoilt votes56 420Voter turnout66.15%

PartyVotes%SeatsANC1 951 02754.2244IFP588 04616.3413DA500 05113.9011EFF349 3619.718NFP56 5871.571MF18 8640.521ATM17 7290.491ACDP17 2140.481Only those parties with one seat or more included

HOW DO YOU FORESEE THE KWAZULU-NATAL VOTE GOING?

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