BUJUMBURA, 19 November 2009 (IRIN) - Next year’s elections in Burundi, billed as a milestone on the country’s long road to sustainable peace, could trigger more conflict because of a combination of widespread illegal weapons and well-organized youth wings of political parties, according to analysts.
Power struggles in Burundi have provoked bouts of armed violence and civil war from independence in 1962 until the country’s last rebel group gave up and became a political party in April 2009.
According to Jean-Marie Gasana, a veteran Burundi analyst, the risks associated with the youth wings are exacerbated by the presence “of large caches of arms in the hands of civilians.
"Even more worrying is what happens should the opposition contest the outcome of the elections," he told IRIN in Bujumbura. "We are likely to see a repeat of scenarios... where violence has ensued following flawed elections."
"We could return to civil war,” echoed Pierre-Claver Mbonimpa, founding president of the Burundi Association for the Protection of Human Rights and Detainees.
"We have to also pay attention to the police and army, both of which have integrated former rebels into their ranks," he added. "If there is an incident during the elections, these people could be tempted to support their original movements."
Some of the armed, government-controlled former rebels in the capital operate outside the formal structures of the police and army, according to one human rights activist, who asked not to be named.
“The situation could become chaotic because youth [groups] have often been used during past civil wars and this is no different,” said Mbonimpa.
Some of these groups feel unfairly targeted by the authorities. Odette Ntahiraja, the secretary-general of the Mouvement pour la solidarité et la démocratie (MSD), a party registered in June 2009, told IRIN its young supporters were “often denied the right to hold demonstrations.
“Sometimes they are even arrested and some are beaten. Yet other youth groups are armed and go ahead and intimidate people without any action being taken against them,” she added.
Risk of election violence
For the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies, such uneven attitudes by the authorities help to make Burundi a “classroom example of a country at potential risk of election-related violence”.
Jamila El Abdellaoui, a senior researcher in the institute’s conflict prevention programme, says another reason is the reported
June 28, 2010, 01:54:14 AM